Climate Change & Intensive Cropping Systems

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Impact Of Climate Change On Crops

The Scottish climate is going to get warmer with wetter winters and drier summers
An increase in many pest, weed and disease problems on crops over the next 50 years is likely
Some pests, weeds and diseases will become less of a problem
New 'alien' pests, weeds and diseases from outside the country, could arrive and establish themselves
There will be a need to increase pest, weed and disease forecasting and monitoring to detect and eradicate any sporadic introductions of new problems and to manage problems already present in Scotland
Changes in pest, weed and disease management will be required

Table 1. The likely changes in Scottish climate by 2050

Climatic variable	Likely change
Temperature	Warming of between 1-2°C, with greatest warming during the autumn except for the extreme north of the country. There will be more extremes of temperature in the summer and autumn, with fewer very cold days, especially in the winter.
Rainfall	Winter rainfall will increase by 15-20%. Summer rainfall will decrease by 15-30%.
Humidity	Relative humidity will decrease slightly.
Soil moisture	There will be a reduction in soil moisture in the summer and autumn of between 10-30% except in the Highlands. Winter soil moisture will increase up to 10% from current levels.
Thermal growing season	This will increase in all areas allowing earlier sowing of crops to occur along with earlier harvests and potential for novel crops to be grown.

Below we discuss several pest, weed and disease problems that will be affected by the change to Scotland climate over the next 50 years. Computer models allow us to predict how certain crop pests, weeds and diseases, not previously seen in the UK, may spread in the future as a result of climate change. This surveillance of threats from new problems provides an opportunity for SAC to take action before these problems arise - thereby minimising the threat to our food crops.

Brown Rust

Wheat brown rust (Puccinia recondita) is a major disease threat to crops in East Anglia but, until recently, has caused minimal economic damage in Scotland.